Europe's Struggle in the Multipolar World: A Fight to Preserve Influence Part 2

Over the past few decades, Europe's role and influence in international affairs have diminished significantly. The continent that used to rule the international scene is now fighting to preserve its influence and ability to define policy priorities. It looks at the threats from other countries and the weaknesses of economic and political fragmentation. This newsletter attempts to shed light on a significant shift in global power by tracking the historical trajectory and structural factors that have weakened Europe's standing. This shift has significant consequences for the growing multipolar international order.

Decline in International Role

The European Union's cohesion and ability to act collectively have been tested, contributing to Europe's dwindling global power.

The growth of new powers that challenge Europe's hegemony in strategic regions is a significant contributor. A good case in point is China's massive Belt and Road Initiative, which connects more than 60 nations. Beijing's economic and strategic clout has been further augmented through BRI's $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures spanning Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. The Council on Foreign Relations predicts that by 2020, 50-80% of BRI contracts will have been awarded to Chinese enterprises, further solidifying China's position as a regional power.

At the same time, the United States has increasingly pursued unilateral policies that favour its national interests, ignoring transatlantic institutions like NATO and the European Union. There was a significant gap between European allies like France and Germany over the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Recent foreign policy decisions made by former President Trump, who took a more transactional approach, were only sometimes coordinated with Brussels. The European Union's (EU) global voice is at risk of being drowned out as emerging rivals expand their influence and Washington looks beyond Europe.

Due to competing national interests among its 27 member states, the European Union has found it challenging to speak cohesively on significant foreign policy matters. During the Iraq War, traditional US allies like Britain supported the invasion despite considerable opposition from France and Germany, demonstrating these internal differences. Disarray in NATO's campaign also occurred during the 2011 Libyan intervention due to clashing agendas between France, Italy, and Germany.

Recently, Ukraine has shown how difficult it is to get national capitals and Brussels to agree on anything. Due to their energy and economic ties with Russia, member states like Germany and Hungary have hesitated to approve substantial penalties despite Russia's hostility. Member nations like Poland and Hungary are increasingly at odds with Brussels' norms, even on fundamental principles like liberal democracy. Internal foreign policy schisms weaken Europe's outward participation.

Europe is up against formidable rivals when it comes to utilizing new technology for geopolitical impact, and the issue isn't limited to disagreements over foreign policy. China has invested massive government resources into developing fields like AI and 5G communications to achieve supremacy. About $150 billion has been invested by the Chinese government in the country's technology sector under Made in China 2025, focusing on cloud computing, geospatial systems, and aviation technology.

However, Europe's approach to regulation has yet to produce homegrown tech champions capable of competing with American and Chinese enterprises globally. According to Statista, the European Union will get 11% of all venture capital funding for artificial intelligence startups in 2020, down from 23% in 2016. European companies like Ericsson and Nokia lag behind Huawei in the 5G race. Europe could lose the geopolitical clout that comes with technological superiority if China continues to promote exports and standards under its Digital Silk Road plan.

Europe's Decline Explanation

Europe's declining influence can be better understood by looking at the historical and structural issues that took the continent from the centre of global events.

Post-World War II, international politics and the liberal international order were largely shaped by the transatlantic alliance between the United States and Western European nations. However, the need for such close coordination between North America and Europe was now more pressing after the end of the Cold War. The worldwide War on Terror escalated after 9/11, so the United States' attention turned from Europe to other potential hotspots, such as the Middle East and Asia.

Another major factor that diminished Europe's influence was globalization. Capital and industry have increasingly shifted away from the West and toward emerging regions like China and India, where cheap labour is abundant. According to World Bank projections, by 2020, Europe will contribute less than 20% of global GDP, down from more than 25% in 1980. The economic action now is concentrated in the East.

Demographic reasons have severely eroded Europe's worldwide influence. Its population as a percentage of the world's decreased from 20% in 1900 to under 7% in 2000. The continent's economic potential must be improved by an aging workforce, low birth rates, and youth exodus to more active economies. The euro currency has imposed significant difficulties on EU member states with weaker economies, such as Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy.

With global rivalry heating up, Europe is disadvantaged due to its aging population. The United Nations predicts that by 2050, Europe's population of working-age people will have decreased by more than 30 million. With rising youth populations in Africa and Asia, experts predict the region's global population share will fall to 6%. Europe's economic vibrancy and innovative potential will be significantly hampered due to fewer employees supporting a more significant number of elderly persons who are no longer in the labour force.

European governments are also under social pressure from populist organizations within Europe and separatist parties from neighbouring regions that work against the continent's unification. In Europe, right-wing parties have made gains by capitalizing on people's fears of economic decline and societal transformation.

Europe’s voters look inside as they try to make sense of these complicated social shifts. As Euroskeptic parties gain traction across Europe, tensions between Brussels and national capitals have grown. Europe's ability to make tough reforms or respond assertively to external threats needs to be improved by this friction.

Just how crucial is this matter to you?

The intricate interplay of external influences and internal tensions has led to Europe's slide from the centre of international events to a more peripheral geopolitical actor. Europe's impact is being muted by a number of factors, including the rebalancing of global power, the rise of techno-nationalism, demographic restrictions, and the rise of Eurosceptic populism.

In addition to immediate economic reforms and immigration integration efforts, rethinking Europe's position and priorities in a multipolar world where power and influence are increasingly derived from adaptation and innovation is essential if the continent is to reverse its decline. Europe's voice and weight in global affairs may be restored by investing in next-generation technology, rallying around shared interests, and rediscovering a sense of purpose as a continent.

Personal Notes

I've had a hectic two weeks because I took a much-needed break from work to finish two books that I'd been working on for over a year. Please take this gift of your choice of an eBook or an audiobook as a sign of my appreciation. The first book will be available on February 10, 2024. We've accomplished a huge milestone thanks to your perseverance: our readership has increased to over 800 people. I really appreciate everyone here. I appreciate you joining me on this voyage. Your encouragement inspires me, and I eagerly anticipate the chances ahead.